Aggressive Floor General or Timid Shooter. Which is David Griffin getting ready to pay?
During a conference call with local media, Pelicans General Manager David Griffin expressed mutual interest in locking up Lonzo Ball for the long term, but offering Ball was never the confusing part.
The equation gets difficult when trying to figure out which Ball will the Pelicans be paying.
Throughout the season, Ball showed several versions of himself.
He was hesitant. He was aggressive. He was turnover-prone. He was a floor general. He settled for contested stepbacks. He forced his way into the paint and found shooters.
There's the Lonzo that turns invisible on the court, and there's the Lonzo that commands every aspect of the game.
Which will the Pelicans be paying and how much?
Lonzo vs. Lonzo
A signature move is supposed to be something that excites a fan because they know it's going to result in highlight reel material. They've seen it work a million times and they probably know the move's setup as well as the player.
When LeBron James is 30-feet from the basket and he looks down at the ball, every LeBron fan watching knows that shot's destiny—bottom of the net.
Lonzo Ball's signature move doesn't excite fans. It pains both fans and Pelicans staff alike.
"I think the step-back dribble one is one we have to cut out," said Head Coach Alvin Gentry.
At the time of Gentry's public request, Ball was shooting just 19.5% on shots off the dribble, nearly half of his percentage for catch-and-shoot attempts. As poor as Ball's percentage on his signature move is, it's the situations that he tries the move that is induce the most pain.
For example, with a slight crossover, Lonzo Ball had the 7' Isaiah Hartenstein off balance and created a clear right lane to the rim, but instead of blowing by the only rim protector on the court for an easy layup, Ball settles for a difficult stepback three.
Rather than exploding to the rim, Ball routinely settles for a stepback three over slower defenders.
Mavericks Head Coach Rick Carlisle seems to have recognized Ball's bad habit, as he chose to put a big on the Pelicans point guard for a majority of each outing this season.
The result was an 0-4 record for the Pelicans against the Mavericks this season, including the teams worst loss in franchise history and Ball’s lowest point total(2) of the season.
To be fair, the 22-year-old point guard did miss extended time this season with a groin injury, which would possibly explain his timidness toward explosive situations.
Helping Ball’s case is the fact that there were a few moments this season where it seemed he would recognize a mismatch but due to either his physical situation or a lack of isolation dribbling skills, he couldn't capitilize.
Ball recognizes the slower Luka Dončic on him, and calls off the pick, leaving him 1-on-1 with one of the worst perimeter defenders in the NBA. He has an entire side of the court to work with and even gets Dončic out of position with a quick sizeup, but he becomes uncomfortable and passes out of the positive situation.
The result: a prayer of a 30-footer.
Whether due to inability or unwillingness, Ball not attacking mismatches in half-court settings is a disservice to a team with few players capable of scoring in isolation situations. Brandon Ingram and Jrue Holiday are the only players on the roster to score at least half their field goals unassisted, making Ball's playmaking even more valuable for the Pelicans offense.
Take into account that Ball is also limited in pick-and-roll situations, and 1-on-1 basketball becomes a part of his game he can't afford to shy away from.
As frustrating as Ball's signature stepback is, it doesn't come close to the frustration caused by his fear of the mid-range.
Much like similar philosophy teams, the mid-range is almost nonexistent for the Pelicans, as only JJ Reddick and Brandon Ingram score over 10% of their points in the area. But Lonzo Ball simply posing a threat inside the three point line opens the Pelicans' half-court offense up to a new level.
At just 10.9 points per game for his career, no one would classify Ball as a scorer, but towards the second half of this season, Ball displayed scoring aggression that forced defenses to pay attention in him.
Post-Christmas, Ball had six 20-point games over the next three months. For context, Ball had just six 20-point games in the first two-and-a-half years of his career.
The result of Ball's scoring threat opened up the Pelicans offense and turned him into a true franchise point guard.
The drive-and-kick philosophy is one of the simplest in basketball, and when Ball decides to practice it, few guards are better at creating scoring opportunities for teammates.
Despite having the third-least points in the paint on the Pelicans, behind shooters JJ Redick and Nicolo Melli, Ball's athleticism, size and newfound scoring naturally draw defenders in, leaving shooters wide open on the perimeter.
Ball's IQ and passing ability then allow him to almost always find the open man or get the hockey assist.
At 7 assists a night, Ball is already a top-15 passer in the league, but his assist total doesn't accurately capture the scoring opportunities he creates, partly because he shares playmaking duties with another top-15 assist player in Jrue Holiday. James Harden and Russell Westbrook are the only other teammates in the top-15, and both players have their lowest assist averages since 2014-15.
In the midst of an 11-0 Lonzo Ball sparked run, Pelicans Analyst Antonio Daniels, raved "Lonzo Ball does so many things that don't end up on the stat sheet."
Watch one Pelicans game and you'll see exactly what Daniels references.
It took Doris Burke about three quarters to recognize the commandment Ball had over the Pelicans' offense.
"Lonzo Ball is the perfect point guard for the system gentry wants to play."
Ball and Gentry are a match made in heaven.
Gentry wants the Pelicans to play fast and Lonzo Ball is at his best going full speed.
During his best, most aggressive state, Lonzo Ball resembles the Lonzo Ball his dad commanded in AAU tournaments and from Chino Hills sidelines. Make or miss, his head is always up, and he's always a threat to make something out of nothing.
That version of Lonzo Ball is so game-changing that the Pelicans are willing to live with his 20 games of 4 turnovers or more this season.
“I think playing in a system like we’ve got is going to enhance his game and give him an opportunity to be who he is,” Gentry said. “Yeah, he has some turnovers in those situations. But he has some great plays. It’s something we have to live with.”
So How Much is Ball Worth?
Gentry's system has enhanced Ball's game, and Ball's game has enhanced Gentry's system. From Steve Nash and the Suns to Steph Curry and the Warriors to James Harden and the Rockets, the system Gentry wants to play requires a special guard.
Lonzo Ball is that guard.
As concerning as his timid nature on the court is at times, Ball's team-first mentality is perfect for a team with Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson as its two other cornerstones.
It's hard to imagine a GM as involved as David Griffin not recognizing Ball's importance and locking up the franchise point guard.
Due to Ball only flashing his full potential for a fraction of his time in the league, it's unlikely Ball receives a contract the likes of D'Angelo Russell's 4-year, $117 million deal or Jamal Murray's 5-year, $169 million deal.
It's more likely Ball warrants a contract somewhere in the realm of Terry Rozier's 3-year, $58 million or Malcolm Brogdon's 4-year, $85 million. A deal similar to Rozier's would allow Ball to make nearly $20 million a year while proving himself before he reaches unrestricted free agency at only 25 years old.
The following deal would likely mean losing a newly-entered prime Lonzo Ball if he continues at his current rate and warrants a max contract. Griffin's best bet is slightly overpaying Ball now on a 5-year deal to give himself two more years to judge what a Ball/Ingram/Williamson big-3 can accomplish in its prime.
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