12 games into his rookie season, it's clear what the 2021 no.1 overall pick is destined to become.
Admittedly, the headline sounds like clickbait — Cade Cunningham has only played 12 games and here I am comparing him to a consensus top-20 player of all time. But, I promise it's not what you think.
I don't see Cunningham developing into arguably the greatest scorer ever. In fact, I've been trying to convince people for over a year now that calling Cunningham "Kyle Anderson 2.0" is actually a compliment, but after following the no.1 overall pick throughout his first dozen games, maybe there’s a better way to describe Cunningham: one of the NBA's next two-way superstars.
I know I know, fellow rookie Evan Mobley was leading the league in total contested shots before his injury, he's the next Kevin Garnett and the best Cavalier ever not named LeBron James. If any article is being written about a rookie destined to be a two-way superstar, it should be about him, but that's exactly why Cunningham is the next Durant.
Anyone who watches a quarter of Cavaliers basketball can spot that Mobley is generational on both ends, thus the comparisons to all-time two-way greats like Garnett, Tim Duncan and Anthony Davis(seriously, search Mobley's name on Twitter and you'll see that I'm being modest with the Cade praise). Cunningham's ability on defense, on the other hand, is an afterthought to most people who watch him play.
Some of that has to do with the fact that no one actually wants to watch him play(Kelly Olynyk being the most efficient player on the team will do that). However, the main reason Cunnigham is so overlooked defensively has nothing to do with being on a bad team. It's because what he can do on offense.
For every passing lane Cade jumps, he threads a crosscourt pass to an open shooter in the corner and for every full court press he initiates, he hits a double crossover that sparks Tim Hardaway flashbacks.
A bubbling unstoppable offensive package has Cade Cunningham gearing up to become the next Kevin Durant, a two-way superstar whose gifts on offense cause his defensive ability to fly under the radar.
The Traits of a Defensive Superstar
So my whole spill on how Cunningham compares to Durant wasn't enough for you? And Durant's co-sign up above didn't do the trick either?
This is normally the spot where I'd convince you with stats about how opponents shoot below average when guarded by Cunningham or how Cunningham has one of the best defensive ratings in a decade. Unfortunately, those numbers don't exist yet — in fact, opponents are shooting about six percent better with Cunningham guarding them, and his defensive rating(108.2) is about as close to Ziaire Williams(117.3) for the worst spot among notable rookies as it is to Evan Mobley(99.6) for the best spot.
I usually prefer a healthy combination of numbers and film, but rookies and numbers that require a large sample size to work don't really mix. Ask Cam Reddish. For now, the ole-fashioned, franchise destroyer called the eye test will have to get the point across.
Similar to Raptors rookie Scottie Barnes' defensive stats, Cunningham's numbers are a victim of his own willingness to get dirty on defense.
He picks up opposing guards further from the basket than the average NBA defender, he seeks out the other team's best player and he guards future Hall of Famers with the same intensity that he guards guys off the bench with.
In just his third NBA game, amidst a 6-17 shooting night, Cunningham cuts off Durant's drive twice and contests one of the league's best scorers as well as anyone not named Giannis Antetokounmpo could.
At 6'8, 220 pounds, Cunningham's size is strangely overlooked in a league that values the ability to play multiple positions. In his one year at Oklahoma State, Cunningham essentially played the Draymond/Davis/Antetokounmpo role of defensive free safety, picking off passes to the role man, contesting shots at the rim and using his high IQ to psych out driving defenders.
Here's a video of Cunningham playing this role in college and Summer League, courtesy of Bryce Simon.
With more athletic and experienced teammates like Jerami Grant and Isaiah Stewart, Cunningham hasn't played this role much in his first 12 NBA games. However, the ballhawk trait is still there.
The above clips looks like a textbook basketball movement; it should be an easy two points and receive a proud coach smirk from Steve Kerr.
Nemanja Bjelica attacks his man's hip with a strong drive to the elbow and forces Cunningham to decide between coming over to help and leaving Gary Payton II open in the corner(a major NBA no-no) or staying attached and letting Bjelica take advantage of Luka Garza. It's a lose-lose situation that looks like it's about to somehow become even worse by Grant turning into Payton II's next poster victim off a back cut, but Cade channels his inner Draymond Green and snaps on the bounce pass for the steal.
It's an unteachable defensive read(look at the Pistons' coaching staff as it plays out), yet Cunningham pulled it off in just his ninth NBA game.
Anyone who watched Cunningham routinely dissect double teams and anchor the paint on defense at Oklahoma State would notice that the point guard sees the floor in a way that only a dozen or so guys in the league can. That IQ mixed with his size is enough to make him an above average defender in the NBA, but when those two elements are paired with the tenaciousness of a guy on a 10-day contract, a defensive superstar is in the works.
This is the moment that sparked this article.
Under two minutes left and Jordan Poole was in the middle of a 32-point scoring night on 60% shooting and 50% from three, and somehow those numbers don't even begin to do justice to how bad he was embarrassing the Pistons. After a night of feasting on Killian Hayes(side note: if pre-draft Hayes ever shows up this team would be pretty fun) and Cory Joseph, Poole had a chance to ice the game only to get beat to his spot twice by Cunningham and end up turning the ball over.
Cade's willingness to step up to the plate and guard one the league's shiftiest players on an island with the game on the line is a moment most players, especially a rookie coming off injury, would avoid and no one would have judged him for it. That's the other half of my Cunningham-Durant comparison: they're basketball purists willing to do whatever it takes to win.
Which brings me to the true half of Cunningham's similarity to Durant.
Blinding Offensive Potential
"Our body types probably resemble each other the most, as far as who I look like in the NBA," Cade said. " [Luka's] role. He's a primary ball-handler. He's the one kinda making the plays, so that's why I say Luka a bunch."
Cunningham gets a lot of comparisons to Luka Doncic on offense. It's probably the main reason Cunningham ranked ahead a clear Anthony Davis clone in Evan Mobley in virtually every mock draft.
The above quote comes from Cunningham's appearance on The Old Man & the Three podcast. Standing an inch taller and surprisingly just 10 pounds lighter, it's easy to see how the comparisons can arise after watching the two play — they both operate the pick-and-roll masterfully, use their bodies to keep defenders on their back and clearly took stellar notes at the LeBron James school of passing.
Personally, I'm holding off on subscribing to the Cunningham-Doncic comparison until Cunningham brings his shot release higher to improve his pull-up game and the Pistons get more weapons. But, if you're already a Cunningham-Doncic subscriber, here's some ammunition:
Watching Davion Mitchell, one of the most highly touted defensive rookie guards in recent memory, and the rest of the Sacramento Kings try to guard Cunningham felt eerily similar to watching Patrick Beverly and the Los Angeles Clippers try to guard Doncic in past playoff series. Cunningham played at his own pace, used his body to negate Mitchell's quickness then simply passed it over Mitchell or got to wherever he wanted.
When Mitchell or even the speedier De'Aaron Fox didn't work, the Kings tried to cancel out Cunningham's size with 6-foot-9, 225-pound forward Chimezie Metu.
Much like Doncic, Cade went to a sequence of dribble moves that looked way too slow to work but turned out to be just shifty enough to create a lane to finish at the rim. He finished the Kings game with his best NBA performance yet, 25 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists.
If guards are too small to cut off his passing vision and bigs are too slow to keep up, surely wing defenders must be the answer.
Wrong again. It doesn't matter if you throw 6'1 Davion Mitchell, 6'5 Isaac Okoro or 6'10 Kevin Durant(see below) at him, if Cunningham chooses to use his size against you, it usually goes in his favor. Unfortunately, at this stage of the season, he doesn't play bully ball enough and resorts to low efficiency threes(ironicall, more ammunition for the Doncic comp).
Again, I don't think the Cunningham-Doncic narrative holds much weight until Cunningham gets a higher release on pull-up jumpers and embraces his size more in the post. Doncic is generational on offense, ranks in the top-10 in essentially every pick-and-roll statistic, and most importantly, has the supporting cast to compliment his playing style.
The Pistons are the second-worst corner three-point shooting team in the league and the worst shooting team from the top of the arch, both prime kick out destinations for driving playmakers. His true offensive potential isn't going to shine when he's attracting three defenders only to kick it out to an 11% three-point shooter.
Roster issues and a poor shooting start aside, Cunningham averaged 13/6/5 in his first dozen games, notched one triple double and appears to be a perennial threat for more.
That ability to lead the game in points, rebounds and assists on any given night paired with flashes of Doncic on offense is enough offensive potential to keep anyone who watches the Pistons from spotting Cunningham's superstar traits on defense, just like another certain someone.
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