On the evening of November 29th, 2018, the game of the NBA year was played. With an injured Stephen Curry for the Warriors and an off Kyle Lowry for the Raptors, Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard battled like Titans, combining for 88 points.
The Raptors won the game of the year, but Curry wasn't in the picture, making Leonard's absence in their final regular season matchup two weeks later even more disappointing. However, even without their franchise player, the Raptors handled the Warriors, winning 113-93 and dominating on both ends. Looking over those matchups and the playoff performances from both teams, I put together five quiet keys to this year's championship.
1.) Danny Green vs. Klay Thompson
Considering the amount of switching both teams rely on and the success Klay Thompson had when guarding Kyle Lowry in their first matchup, holding the point guard to 4-for-14 shooting, a direct Thompson/Green matchup is unlikely. However, this matchup is one to keep an eye on, as Green has struggled for almost three postseasons straight and Thompson was statistically the Warriors weakest link in their regular season matchups against the Raptors.
With an effective field goal percentage of 44.3 percent, Danny Green has had the largest postseason drop in effeciency of all 81 qualified players. His three-point percentage dropped from a league-wide, second-best 45 percent to a below average 31 percent. In a series between two of the league's top defenses, Green will need to convert at his regular season pace for the Raptors to score enough to contend.
The underlined fear overtaking all non-Warriors fans is that Klay Thompson, fresh off an All-NBA snub costing him $30 million, will drop 50 points in Game 1 without dribbling to mock Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker. However, the length and switching ability of Raptors' wings have spelled troubles for Thompson, as he shot 21 percent from deep and had the lowest plus/minus of all with the Warriors, being outscored by a total of 35 points when he was on the court in their regular season matchups. A fully functioning Klay takes some attention away from the constant defensive pressure Curry will have to go up against.
2.) The Injury No One is Talking About
Due to an emergency appendectomy, Raptors forward OG Anunoby has been injured for the last two months. Averaging just 4.5 points per game against the Warriors this season, OG Anunoby isn't going to be the magical piece that shifts the power dynamic of this series. But he could be the sneaky pawn that shifts the power dynamic of this series.
Standing at 6'8 with a 7'6 wingspan, Anunoby is another freakish-sized wing Raptors Head Coach Nick Nurse can throw at Curry, Thompson and possibly Durant. Other than defense, Anunoby can also play the pivotal role of allowing Kawhi to get a breather. At 696 minutes, Kawhi Leonard leads all players in playing time and has over 100 more minutes logged than the anchor of Golden State's offense, Stephen Curry. Anunoby being able to harass Thompson and Curry while giving a hobbled Leonard a breather could be a series-shifting boost for Toronto.
3.) Does Nick Nurse prioritize offense or defense?
Operating against the equally immobile bigs of Milwaukee, Marc Gasol was able to shine on both ends of the court. However, aside from the rare Andrew Bogut appearance, Gasol will be a defensive weak link against a motion-heavy Warriors team. Just picturing Gasol getting blown by against Draymond Green and lumbering around trying to stay with Stephen Curry already makes me want to close my lagged Reddit stream.
With that being said, Gasol is the Raptors best choice if they unwisely decide to test their scoring against the scoring of the Warriors. His most likely replacement, Serge Ibaka, has the lowest field-goal efficiency on catch-and-shoot attempts of all qualifying players. With Leonard and Lowry needing shooters to kick it out to, it will be interesting to see which big man Nurse utilizes most.
4.) Can Fred VanVleet stay hot?
The Warriors are 11-0 this postseason when holding their opponents below 115 points. The Raptors have scored over 115 points just three times this postseason, with one of those coming in a double-overtime game; however, they are 10-0 this postseason when they score over 104 points. It's safe to say Toronto will need any points they can get. Insert Fred VanVleet.
The backup guard has provided great minutes off the bench since the birth of his son, shooting 14-for-17 from deep and posting the highest plus/minus of any Raptor at plus 39. With the Raptors relying so heavy on Leonard isos and Lowry's ability to find the open man, a hot hand from VanVleet would provide the necessary floor spacing to defeat the Warriors.
5.) Kevin Durant and the Golden State Offense
Since Kevin Durant went down with a strained calf, the dominance of Curry and the Warriors have left many questioning whether the Warriors are better off without the superstar forward. Ten times out of ten, no team will ever get better if they lose arguably the most unstoppable scorer in the sport's history; but, if there was an 11th test just to make sure and that test was against the Raptors, the Warriors may just be better without the aforementioned all-time great.
Throughout his tenure as a Warrior, Kevin Durant has played the role of security blanket, bailing Golden State out of sticky situations one hesi pull-up at a time. Look no further than Durant's 2017 Game 3 NBA Finals performance. In his two games against the Raptors this season, Durant averaged 40.5 points on just 53 total shots. As he can against any team, Durant can score at will against the Raptors, but, it's worth noting that in both of his scoring onslaughts the Warriors were outscored when he was on the floor. In their two matchups, Golden State's offense lacked the movement the team has been known for and looked more like the offense Durant had in OKC. It will be interesting to see if Durant's return will lead to the watered down offensive movement the Warriors showed in the regular season games against Toronto.